# BAOZI PARIMUTUEL MARKETS -- SYSTEM RULES (v7.2)

Internal specification for AI agents, market validators, and frontend logic.
Updated: February 20, 2026

STRICT ENFORCEMENT. Markets violating these rules are BLOCKED at validation.
This document is the SINGLE SOURCE OF TRUTH for market creation.

---

## HOW PARI-MUTUEL WORKS -- READ THIS FIRST

### Binary Market (Yes/No)

```
1. ALL bets go into ONE shared pool
2. There is NO EXIT -- once you bet, your SOL is locked until resolution
3. House takes a fee (2-3%) from gross winnings
4. Winners SPLIT the remaining pool proportionally to their bet size
5. Odds are determined BY the pool ratios, not a bookmaker
6. There is NO secondary market, NO cashout, NO position trading
```

Example:
```
Pool: 100 SOL total
  70 SOL on YES
  30 SOL on NO
  House fee: 2.5%

If YES wins: 70 bettors split 97.5 SOL -> 1.39x return
If NO wins:  30 bettors split 97.5 SOL -> 3.25x return
```

### Race Market (Pick 1 of N Outcomes)

```
1. 2-10 possible outcomes. Each bettor picks ONE.
2. ALL bets across ALL outcomes go into ONE shared pool.
3. ONLY bettors who picked the winning outcome split the pool.
4. More outcomes = more spread = better payouts for underdogs.
```

Example:
```
Race: "Who wins Best Picture?" -- 5 nominees
  Film A: 40 SOL (favorite)
  Film B: 25 SOL
  Film C: 20 SOL
  Film D: 10 SOL
  Film E:  5 SOL
  House fee: 2.5%

If Film A wins: 2.44x   (favorite, lower payout)
If Film C wins: 4.88x   (mid-tier)
If Film E wins: 19.5x   (underdog jackpot!)
```

---

## THE TWO ALLOWED MARKET TYPES

### Type A: Scheduled Event Markets

The outcome is determined at a SINGLE POINT-IN-TIME event.

```
Betting closes 24h+ BEFORE the event.
```

```
Timeline:
BETTING OPEN                              EVENT
|--------------------| ... 24h gap ... |
                     Close              Outcome revealed
```

Examples: UFC fight conclusion, Oscar announcement, FOMC decision, F1 race finish, episode airing.

### Type B: Measurement-Period Markets

Data is collected over a DEFINED PERIOD, then published as a result.

```
Betting closes BEFORE the measurement period STARTS.
```

```
Timeline:
BETTING OPEN         MEASUREMENT PERIOD              RESULT
|------------------| |----------------------------|    |
                   Close  Start               End   Published
                    ^
                    |
     Must close BEFORE measurement starts!
```

Examples: Billboard Hot 100 tracking week (Fri-Thu), Netflix Top 10 (Mon-Sun), weekend box office (Fri-Sun), album first-week sales.

### WHY BOTH TYPES WORK

The key: **when bettors place their bets, NOBODY has ANY information about the outcome.** All bettors are equally uncertain.

- Type A: The event hasn't happened yet. Nobody knows who wins the fight.
- Type B: The measurement hasn't started yet. Nobody knows what will chart #1.

---

## THE GOLDEN RULES

### Rule 1: NO INFORMATION ADVANTAGE

Bettors must NEVER have access to ANY information that could determine the outcome while betting is still open.

### Rule 2: GENUINE DISAGREEMENT

Reasonable, informed people must DISAGREE about the outcome. If the pool would split 90/10, the market is dead on arrival.

### Rule 3: OBJECTIVE VERIFICATION

Every market must resolve from an approved public source. No subjective judgments.

---

## BANNED MARKET TYPES

### HARD BAN 1: Price Prediction Markets

```
BANNED. NO EXCEPTIONS.
```

Why: Prices are continuous and observable RIGHT NOW. Everyone can see the current price. The pool just mirrors what's already visible. No genuine uncertainty.

**BLOCKED keywords:** `price above`, `price below`, `price at`, `price by`, `trading above`, `trading below`, `market cap above`, `market cap below`, `ATH`, `all-time high`, `floor price above`, `floor price below`, `close above`, `close below`

Applies to: Crypto, stocks, commodities, NFTs, real estate, forex -- ALL asset prices.

### HARD BAN 2: Open-Window Deadline Markets

```
BANNED. NO EXCEPTIONS.
```

Why: The event can happen at ANY TIME within the window and is INSTANTLY OBSERVABLE when it happens. Once it happens, everyone sees it, pool floods to the obvious answer, winners get ~1.01x. Dead market.

**THE KEY DISTINCTION:**
- "Will Drake drop an album before March 1?" -- BANNED. Album drop can happen any day. Instantly visible on Spotify. No defined measurement period. No scheduled revelation moment.
- "What will be #1 on Billboard chart published March 4?" -- ALLOWED. Chart has a defined tracking week. Betting closes before tracking starts. Result published at scheduled time.

**BLOCKED patterns:**
- "Will [person] do X before [date]?" (observable instantly)
- "Will [product] release/launch before [date]?" (observable instantly)
- "Will [person] resign/quit/retire before [date]?" (observable instantly)
- "Will [person] tweet/post about X before [date]?" (observable instantly)
- "Will [thing] happen within [time]?" (observable instantly)
- "Will [person] announce X by [date]?" (observable instantly)
- "Will [company] IPO before [date]?" (observable instantly)

**Test:** "If this event happened tomorrow at 3 AM, would people immediately know?" YES = BANNED.

### HARD BAN 3: Subjective / Unverifiable Outcomes

**BLOCKED keywords:** `become popular`, `go viral`, `be successful`, `perform well`, `be the best`, `breakthrough`, `revolutionary`, `dominate`, `take over`

### HARD BAN 4: Manipulable Outcomes

**BLOCKED keywords:** `will someone`, `will anyone`, `will a person`, `will a user`, `purchase proxies`, `buy proxies`

### HARD BAN 5: Self-Referential Markets

**BLOCKED keywords:** `will I`, `will we`, `will my`, `will our`, `ai agent`, `an agent`, `autonomously`

---

## DEGEN MARKET CATEGORIES -- WHAT ACTUALLY WORKS

Every example below has been verified against the rules. Listed by degen appeal.

### 1. COMBAT SPORTS & MMA (Type A) -- TIER 1

**Why perfect:** One punch changes everything. Upsets constant. Same-night resolution.

**Binary:**
- "Will [fighter] win the main event at UFC [number]?"
- "Will [fight] end by KO/TKO?"
- "Will [celebrity boxing match] go the distance?"
- "Will the main event end in Round 1?"

**Race (3-5 outcomes):**
- "Method of victory at UFC [number]: KO, Submission, or Decision?"
- "In which round does [fight] end: R1, R2, R3, R4, or R5?"

**Resolution:** UFC.com, ESPN | **Close:** 24h before main card

### 2. ESPORTS (Type A) -- TIER 1

**Why perfect:** Match outcomes unknowable. Upsets constant. Crypto audience overlap.

**Binary:**
- "Will [team] win [tournament] Grand Final?"
- "Will the Grand Final go to a deciding map?"

**Race:**
- "Who wins [tournament]: Team A, B, C, or Other?"
- "Grand Final map count: 2-0, 2-1, or OT?"

**Resolution:** HLTV.org, lolesports.com, vlr.gg, Liquipedia | **Close:** 24h before match

### 3. AWARDS & CEREMONIES (Type A) -- TIER 1

**Why perfect:** Genuinely unknown until announced live. Ideal for race markets. Awards season = content.

**Race (best use case -- 4-8 nominees):**
- "Who wins Best Picture at the [year] Oscars?"
- "Who wins Grammy Album of the Year?"
- "Who wins Game of the Year at The Game Awards?"
- "Who wins Eurovision [year]?"
- "Nobel Peace Prize [year]: [Candidate A], [B], [C], or Other?"
- "Time Person of the Year [year]?"

**Binary:**
- "Will [specific film] win Best Picture?"
- "Will [artist] perform at the Grammy ceremony?"

**Resolution:** Official ceremony broadcast | **Close:** 24h before ceremony start

### 4. WEEKLY CHARTS & RANKINGS (Type B) -- TIER 1

**Why perfect:** Weekly recurring. Defined measurement period. Published result is the outcome.

**Billboard Hot 100** (tracking: Fri-Thu, published: Tuesday)
- "What will be Billboard Hot 100 #1 published [Tuesday date]?"
  Close: Thursday 11:59 PM before tracking starts Friday.

**Netflix Global Top 10** (tracking: Mon-Sun, published: Tuesday)
- "What will be #1 on Netflix Top 10 published [Tuesday date]?"
  Close: Sunday 11:59 PM before tracking starts Monday.

**Weekend Box Office** (tracking: Fri-Sun, published: Monday)
- "What will be #1 at the domestic box office published [Monday date]?"
  Close: Thursday 11:59 PM before tracking starts Friday.

**Race format works best for charts** (4-6 contenders).

**Resolution:** Billboard.com, Netflix Top 10, Box Office Mojo | **Close:** BEFORE measurement period starts

### 5. TRADITIONAL SPORTS (Type A) -- TIER 1

**Binary:**
- "Will [team] win Super Bowl [number]?"
- "Will [team] beat [team] in [scheduled game]?"
- "Will a no-hitter be thrown in [specific scheduled game]?"
- "Will [team] score first in [game]?"

**Race:**
- "F1 [Grand Prix] winner: [Driver A], [B], [C], or Other?"
- "[Game] first score type: Touchdown, Field Goal, or Safety?"
- "NBA Finals MVP: [Player A], [B], [C], or Other?"

**Meme/Prop:**
- "Super Bowl coin toss: Heads or Tails?" (perfect 50/50)
- "National anthem at [game] length: Under 1:45, 1:45-2:00, 2:00-2:15, or Over 2:15?"

**Resolution:** Official league sites, ESPN | **Close:** 24h before game start

### 6. REALITY TV & SCHEDULED BROADCASTS (Type A) -- TIER 1

**Why perfect:** Weekly recurring. Outcome unknown until episode airs. Perfect for race markets.

**Race (who gets eliminated?):**
- "Who gets eliminated on Survivor S[X] Episode [N]: [A], [B], [C], [D]?"
- "Who gets the final rose on Bachelor(ette) Ep [N]: [A], [B], [C]?"
- "Who wins [cooking show] Season [X] Finale: [A], [B], [C]?"
- "Who wins Love Island [year]: [Couple A], [B], [C]?"

**Binary:**
- "Will [contestant] be eliminated this episode?"
- "Will [contestant] win the finale?"

**Resolution:** Official network broadcast | **Close:** 24h before episode airs

### 7. GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS (Type A) -- TIER 1

**Scheduled moment:** Official announcement at known date and time.

**Binary:**
- "Will the Fed cut rates at [date] FOMC meeting?"
- "Will [bill] pass when Senate votes on [scheduled date]?"

**Race:**
- "FOMC [date] decision: Cut 25bps, Cut 50bps, Hold, or Raise?"
- "[Supreme Court case] ruling: Affirm, Reverse, or Remand?"

**Resolution:** Federal Reserve, Congress.gov, AP/Reuters | **Close:** 24h before announcement

### 8. ALBUM & CONTENT LAUNCHES (Type B) -- TIER 2

**Why it works:** The MEASUREMENT PERIOD is the first week after release. Betting closes BEFORE the album drops, so nobody has any streaming data.

**Binary:**
- "Will [album] debut at #1 on Billboard 200 published [date]?"
  Close: Before album release date. Measurement: first week of streams/sales.

- "Will [movie] have a Rotten Tomatoes score above 80% at embargo lift?"
  Close: 24h before review embargo lifts. Scheduled moment: embargo lift.

- "Will [movie] gross over $100M opening weekend?"
  Close: Thursday before Fri-Sun opening. Measurement: Fri-Sun box office.

**Resolution:** Billboard.com, Rotten Tomatoes, Box Office Mojo | **Close:** Before measurement starts or 24h before embargo lift

### 9. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES (Type B) -- TIER 2

**Why it works:** Measurement period is the past month. Report published at SCHEDULED time. Nobody knows the number until publication.

**Binary:**
- "Will unemployment rate be below 4% in [month] BLS report?"
  Published: First Friday of next month at 8:30 AM ET.
  Close: Before the measured month starts (conservative) or 24h before publication (acceptable).

**Race:**
- "BLS unemployment for [month]: Below 3.5%, 3.5-4.0%, 4.0-4.5%, or Above 4.5%?"
- "CPI for [month]: Below 2%, 2-3%, 3-4%, or Above 4%?"

**Resolution:** BLS (bls.gov), FRED, Federal Reserve | **Close:** Before measured period starts

### 10. TECH ANNOUNCEMENTS (Type A) -- TIER 2

**Scheduled moment:** Keynote/event at known date and time.

**Binary:**
- "Will Apple announce [feature] at WWDC [year]?"
- "Will [company] beat Q[N] earnings estimates at [scheduled call]?"

**Race:**
- "What will Apple name the new iPhone at [event]: [A], [B], [C], [D]?"
- "Biggest reveal at [CES/WWDC/I-O]: [Category A], [B], [C]?"

**Resolution:** Official announcements, earnings transcripts | **Close:** 24h before keynote/call

### 11. WEATHER (Type A) -- TIER 2

**Scheduled moment:** End of the specified date. NWS publishes daily summary.

**Binary:**
- "Will it snow in NYC on [specific date]?"
- "Will the high temperature exceed 100F in Phoenix on [specific date]?"

**Race:**
- "NYC high temp on [date]: Below 30F, 30-50F, 50-70F, or Above 70F?"
- "[Named hurricane] landfall category: 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5?"

**Resolution:** NOAA, NWS (weather.gov), NHC | **Close:** 24h before the date

### 12. LIVE EVENT PROP BETS (Type A) -- TIER 3

**Why perfect:** The question IS the marketing. Shareable. Tied to a scheduled event.

**Binary:**
- "Will [performer] do [specific thing] during Super Bowl halftime?"
- "Will [politician] mention [word] during [scheduled debate]?"
- "Will there be a streaker at [scheduled sporting event]?"
- "Will [host] cry on camera at [scheduled awards show]?"

**Race:**
- "What color will [celebrity] wear on the [event] red carpet: Red, Black, White, or Other?"
- "Super Bowl MVP position: QB, RB, WR, or Defense?"
- "Nathan's Hot Dog Contest winner's total: Under 60, 60-65, 65-70, or Over 70?"

**Resolution:** Live broadcast footage, official records | **Close:** 24h before event

### 13. SCHEDULED COMPETITIONS (Type A) -- TIER 3

**Binary:**
- "Will [speedrunner] break the record at GDQ [event]?" (scheduled run slot)
- "Will [contestant] win the Scripps National Spelling Bee?" (scheduled final)

**Race:**
- "Winter Olympics [year] most gold medals: Norway, USA, Germany, or Other?"
- "Streamer of the Year [year]: [A], [B], [C], [D]?" (The Streamer Awards)

**Resolution:** Official event results | **Close:** 24h before event/ceremony

### 14. LOTTERY & DRAWINGS (Type A) -- TIER 3

**Binary:**
- "Will the Powerball jackpot be won on [scheduled drawing date]?"

**Race:**
- "Powerball first number range: 1-17, 18-35, 36-52, or 53-69?"

**Resolution:** Official lottery | **Close:** 24h before drawing

---

## RACE MARKET DESIGN GUIDE

Race markets (2-10 outcomes) are the BEST format for pari-mutuel.

### Why Race Markets Win

| Factor | Binary (Yes/No) | Race (N outcomes) |
|--------|-----------------|-------------------|
| Pool spread | Often lopsided (70/30) | More even (30/25/25/20) |
| Underdog payout | 2-3x typical | 5-20x possible |
| Discussion | Low ("yes or no") | High (argue your pick) |
| Shareability | Moderate | Excellent |

### Design Rules

1. Include 3-6 realistic contenders
2. Include "Other" option when outcomes exceed your list
3. Each option should have at least 10% plausible chance
4. Label outcomes clearly -- no ambiguity
5. Define tiebreaker rules in advance

### Best Categories for Race Markets

| Category | Example | Why Great |
|----------|---------|-----------|
| Awards | "Who wins Best Picture?" | 5+ nominees, genuine uncertainty |
| Combat sports | "Method of victory: KO, Sub, Decision?" | 3 clear outcomes |
| Charts | "Billboard #1: Song A, B, C, D?" | Weekly, 4+ contenders |
| Reality TV | "Who gets eliminated?" | 4+ contestants |
| F1/NASCAR | "Race winner: A, B, C, Other?" | Many contenders |
| FOMC | "Decision: Cut 25, Cut 50, Hold, Raise?" | 4 possible actions |

---

## APPROVED RESOLUTION SOURCES

| Category | Approved Sources |
|----------|-----------------|
| **Esports** | HLTV.org, lolesports.com, Liquipedia, vlr.gg, DotaBuff |
| **MMA/Boxing** | UFC.com, ESPN, Sherdog, Tapology, boxing commissions |
| **Sports** | NFL.com, NBA.com, MLB.com, NHL.com, FIFA, UEFA, ESPN, FIA |
| **Awards** | Academy Awards, Recording Academy, The Game Awards, Eurovision |
| **Politics/Gov** | Congress.gov, Federal Reserve, AP News, Reuters, official government |
| **Charts** | Billboard.com, Netflix Top 10, Box Office Mojo |
| **Reviews** | Metacritic, Rotten Tomatoes |
| **Weather** | NOAA, NWS (weather.gov), NHC, Met Office |
| **Tech** | Apple.com/newsroom, official press releases, SEC filings |
| **Finance/Macro** | BLS (bls.gov), FRED, Federal Reserve, SEC, earnings transcripts |
| **Reality TV** | Official network broadcast, streaming platform |
| **Lottery** | Official lottery results |
| **Competitions** | GDQ, Scripps, Nathan's, Olympic committees |

---

## MARKET CREATION DECISION TREE

```
START
  |
  +-- Is the outcome about a PRICE or asset value?
  |   YES -> BLOCKED. No price markets.
  |
  +-- Is this a "before [deadline]" or "by [date]" question?
  |   YES -> Is the event INSTANTLY OBSERVABLE when it happens?
  |          YES -> BLOCKED. Open-window deadline market.
  |          NO  -> Is there a defined measurement period?
  |                 YES -> Treat as Type B. Proceed.
  |                 NO  -> BLOCKED.
  |
  +-- TYPE A CHECK: Is there a scheduled event when outcome is revealed?
  |   YES -> Does betting close 24h+ before the event?
  |          YES -> Proceed to final checks.
  |          NO  -> Fix the close time.
  |   NO  -> Check Type B.
  |
  +-- TYPE B CHECK: Is there a defined measurement period?
  |   YES -> Does betting close BEFORE the measurement period starts?
  |          YES -> Proceed to final checks.
  |          NO  -> Fix the close time. MUST close before measurement starts.
  |   NO  -> BLOCKED. Must be Type A or Type B.
  |
  +-- FINAL CHECKS:
  |   - Is the outcome OBJECTIVELY VERIFIABLE from an approved source? NO -> BLOCKED.
  |   - Can the creator INFLUENCE the outcome? YES -> BLOCKED.
  |   - Would reasonable people DISAGREE? NO -> BLOCKED (lopsided pool).
  |   - Is the outcome subjective? YES -> BLOCKED.
  |
  +-- APPROVED. Create the market.
```

### The Uncertainty Test

**"If 100 informed people bet on this, how would the pool split?"**

| Pool Split | Rating |
|-----------|--------|
| 50-50 | EXCELLENT (coin toss, close matchup) |
| 40-60 | GREAT (competitive, upset possible) |
| 30-70 | GOOD (slight favorite) |
| 20-80 | WEAK (strong favorite, low payout) |
| 10-90 | BAD (near-certain, market is pointless) |

---

## DEGEN DESIGN PRINCIPLES

### Principle 1: SPEED

| Resolution Time | Rating |
|----------------|--------|
| Same day | EXCELLENT |
| 1-3 days | GREAT |
| 1 week | GOOD |
| 2 weeks | ACCEPTABLE |
| 1 month+ | BAD |

### Principle 2: SHAREABILITY

The question IS the marketing. If you can't tweet it entertainingly, rethink it.

### Principle 3: RECURRING SERIES (Weekly Revenue)

**Best recurring series (all rule-compliant):**
- "Billboard Hot 100 #1" (race, every Tuesday chart publication)
- "Netflix Global Top 10 #1" (race, every Tuesday)
- "Weekend Box Office #1" (race, every Monday numbers)
- "UFC main event winner" (binary, per card ~biweekly)
- "LCK/LCS match predictions" (per scheduled match)
- "[Reality show] elimination" (race, per weekly episode)
- "F1 Grand Prix winner" (race, per race weekend)

### Principle 4: RACE MARKETS > BINARY

Multi-outcome markets generate MORE discussion, MORE shares, and BETTER payouts for underdogs. Prefer race format for awards, charts, eliminations, and tournaments.

### Principle 5: UNDERDOG PAYOUTS SELL

Highlight potential underdog returns: "If [longshot] wins, you get 15x!" Drives engagement.

---

## COMPLETE BLOCKED TERMS LIST

### Price Terms
`price above`, `price below`, `price at`, `price by`, `trading above`, `trading below`, `market cap above`, `market cap below`, `ATH`, `all-time high`, `floor price`, `close above`, `close below`

### Open-Window Deadline Terms
`resign before`, `quit before`, `retire before`, `release before`, `launch before`, `drop before`, `tweet about [topic] before`, `post about [topic] before`, `sell out before`, `sell out within`, `announce before`, `IPO before`, `will ever`

### Measurement Abuse Terms (when measuring observable data in real-time)
`tweet count`, `how many tweets`, `stream count`, `view count this week`, `follower count`

### Subjective Terms
`become popular`, `go viral`, `be successful`, `perform well`, `be the best`, `breakthrough`, `revolutionary`, `dominate`, `take over`

### Self-Referential Terms
`will I`, `will we`, `will my`, `will our`, `ai agent`, `an agent`, `autonomously`

### Manipulation Terms
`will someone`, `will anyone`, `will a person`, `will a user`, `purchase proxies`, `buy proxies`

### Unverifiable Terms
`secretly`, `behind the scenes`, `rumored`

---

## GOOD vs BAD EXAMPLES

### GOOD Markets (Create These)

| Market | Type | Timing | Source |
|--------|------|--------|--------|
| "Will [fighter] win UFC 315 main event?" | A (event) | Close 24h before fight | UFC.com |
| "Method of victory: KO, Sub, Decision?" | A (race) | Close 24h before fight | UFC.com |
| "Who wins CS2 IEM Katowice Grand Final?" | A (race) | Close 24h before match | HLTV.org |
| "Who wins Best Picture at 2027 Oscars?" | A (race) | Close 24h before ceremony | Academy |
| "Will Fed cut rates at March FOMC?" | A (event) | Close 24h before 2PM ET announcement | Federal Reserve |
| "FOMC decision: Cut 25, Cut 50, Hold, Raise?" | A (race) | Close 24h before announcement | Federal Reserve |
| "Billboard Hot 100 #1 published Mar 4?" | B (chart) | Close before Fri tracking starts | Billboard.com |
| "Netflix Top 10 #1 published Mar 4?" | B (chart) | Close before Mon tracking starts | Netflix |
| "Weekend box office #1?" | B (box office) | Close before Fri | Box Office Mojo |
| "Will [album] debut #1 on Billboard 200?" | B (first week) | Close before album release | Billboard.com |
| "Will it snow in Austin TX on Feb 28?" | A (weather) | Close 24h before Feb 28 | NWS |
| "Super Bowl coin toss: Heads or Tails?" | A (event) | Close 24h before game | NFL broadcast |
| "Who eliminated on Survivor S50 Ep7?" | A (race) | Close 24h before episode | CBS |
| "What color [celeb] wears at Met Gala?" | A (race) | Close 24h before red carpet | Event footage |
| "Will [movie] gross over $100M opening weekend?" | B (Fri-Sun) | Close before Friday | Box Office Mojo |
| "F1 Monaco GP winner?" | A (race) | Close 24h before race | FIA |
| "National anthem length: Under 1:45, 1:45-2:00, 2:00-2:15, Over 2:15?" | A (prop) | Close 24h before game | NFL broadcast |
| "BLS unemployment: Below 3.5, 3.5-4.0, 4.0-4.5, Above 4.5%?" | B (monthly) | Close before measured month | BLS |
| "Will Apple announce [feature] at WWDC?" | A (keynote) | Close 24h before keynote | Apple.com |
| "Who wins Eurovision [year]?" | A (race) | Close 24h before final | Eurovision |
| "Hot dog contest: Under 60, 60-65, 65-70, Over 70?" | A (prop) | Close 24h before contest | Nathan's |
| "Will [speedrunner] break record at GDQ?" | A (event) | Close 24h before run slot | GDQ |
| "RT score at embargo lift: Under 60, 60-80, 80-90, Over 90?" | A (snapshot) | Close 24h before embargo | Rotten Tomatoes |
| "Will [company] beat earnings at Q[N] call?" | A (event) | Close 24h before call | Earnings transcript |

### BAD Markets (BLOCKED)

| Market | Why BLOCKED |
|--------|-------------|
| "Will BTC be above $120K on March 3?" | PRICE. Observable right now. |
| "Will SOL floor price hit 200?" | PRICE. Observable right now. |
| "Will Drake drop an album before March 1?" | OPEN WINDOW. Album drop observable instantly. |
| "Will @elonmusk tweet about Dogecoin before March 1?" | OPEN WINDOW. Tweet observable instantly. |
| "Will [leader] resign before [date]?" | OPEN WINDOW. Resignation observable instantly. |
| "Will GTA VI release before October 2026?" | OPEN WINDOW. Release observable instantly. |
| "Will [company] IPO before Q3?" | OPEN WINDOW. IPO filing observable instantly. |
| "Will [celeb couple] announce engagement by June?" | OPEN WINDOW. Announcement observable instantly. |
| "Will Kanye release an album in 2026?" | OPEN WINDOW. Release observable instantly. |
| "How many tweets did Elon post this week?" | MEASUREMENT ABUSE. Real-time observable count. |
| "Will [streamer] stream 300+ hours this month?" | MEASUREMENT ABUSE. Hours observable in real-time. |
| "Which memecoin gains most this week?" | PRICE + MEASUREMENT. Observable continuously. |
| "Will an AI agent autonomously do X?" | SUBJECTIVE + SELF-REFERENTIAL. |
| "Will my project go viral?" | SUBJECTIVE + SELF-REFERENTIAL. |
| "Will someone buy 1000 NFTs this week?" | MANIPULABLE. |
| "Which AI model will be the best by March?" | SUBJECTIVE. |

---

## RESOLUTION PROTOCOL

### Type A Resolution

| Category | Resolve After |
|----------|---------------|
| Sports/MMA | Match/fight conclusion |
| Esports | Match/series conclusion |
| Awards | Winner announced at ceremony |
| Government | Official announcement |
| Weather | End of date, NWS daily summary |
| Tech | Keynote/press event |
| Prop bets | Live event conclusion |
| Reviews | Embargo lift |
| Earnings | Earnings call |

### Type B Resolution

| Category | Measurement Period | Published |
|----------|-------------------|-----------|
| Billboard Hot 100 | Fri-Thu | Tuesday |
| Netflix Top 10 | Mon-Sun | Tuesday |
| Box Office | Fri-Sun | Monday |
| Album first week | 7 days from release | Following week |
| BLS Jobs Report | Previous month | First Friday of next month |
| CPI | Previous month | ~10th of next month |

### Dispute Window

All markets have a 6-hour dispute window after oracle proposes resolution. Bettors can challenge with evidence from approved sources.

---

## QUICK REFERENCE CARD

```
TYPE A:     Scheduled event. close_time <= event_time - 24 hours
TYPE B:     Measurement period. close_time < measurement_period_start
BANNED:     Price predictions, open-window deadlines, subjective, manipulable
RACE:       Prefer race format (3-6 outcomes) for awards, charts, eliminations
SOURCE:     Must use approved resolution source
SPEED:      Same day or same week resolution preferred
SHAREABILITY: If you can't tweet it, rethink it
```

### Quick Tests

**Type A test:** "Is there a scheduled event when the answer is revealed?"
**Type B test:** "Is there a defined measurement period, and does betting close before it starts?"
**Open-window test:** "If this event happened tomorrow at 3 AM, would everyone instantly know?" YES = BANNED.

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*Version 7.2 -- February 20, 2026*

## Changelog

### v7.2 (February 20, 2026)
- **RESTORED:** Type B measurement-period markets (betting closes before measurement starts)
- **ADDED:** 60+ rule-compliant market examples across 14 categories
- **ADDED:** Album/content launch category (Type B measurement)
- **ADDED:** Economic data release category (Type B measurement)
- **ADDED:** Eurovision, Nobel Prize, hot dog contest, GDQ speedrun, RT embargo examples
- **ADDED:** Recurring series recommendations (all rule-compliant)
- **ADDED:** National anthem prop bet, coin toss, red carpet color examples
- **IMPROVED:** Clearer explanation of Type A vs Type B with timeline diagrams
- **IMPROVED:** Decision tree now handles Type A and Type B routing
- **IMPROVED:** Bad examples expanded with open-window, price, and measurement abuse
- **FIXED:** Over-aggressive measurement-period ban from v7.1

### v7.1 (February 20, 2026)
- CRITICAL FIX: Banned all "before [deadline]" open-window markets
- NEW: Scheduled Revelation Moment as core rule
- Over-banned measurement-period markets (fixed in v7.2)

### v7.0 (February 20, 2026)
- BANNED: All price prediction markets
- NEW: Degen market categories, pool mechanics, decision tree